A New Cosmology of Risks and Crises: Time for a Radical Shift in Paradigm and Practice

Crises in the 21st century differ—structurally— from those we had to deal with in the last century. Those were traditionally defined and handled as a combination of “threat, urgency and uncertainty”. Today, they are better described in terms of a destruction of vital references and a dynamic of systemic implosions. If crises were a type of severe, dynamic accident , they are becoming the essential mode of life of our hypercomplex systems. These transboundary crises mark a watershed between mindsets and tools of the past, and the new strategic landscape which we are now in. The intellectual and governance challenges are extreme. But looking backwards is not an option. It is vital to forge new routes into Terrae Incognitae. The goal of this article is to help build a) a renewed understanding of the emerging challenges we face; b) a better strategic response to these systemic dislocations which are now the name of the game.

A new cosmology of risks and crises time for a radical shift in paradigm and practice

Crisis management theory and practice was in the main elaborated in the late 70s and 80s and developed and implemented in the 90s. We now have a rich knowledge of crisis intelligence and best practices. But, even if we can be proud of that advance, a further challenge remains: crises in the 21st century differ?structurally? from those we had to deal with in the last century. By way of example, the disparity between now and then is equivalent to that which existed between the end of the Second World War and the beginning of the First. Thus, if we stick to former paradigms ?we are bound to be defeated in every battle?. Even if it is extremely difficult to forge new routes into Terrae Incognitae, it is vital to do so ? or at least to try.Crises, emerging crises, discontinuity, decision-making

Crisis management in the 21st century "unthinkable" events in "inconceivable" contexts

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THE MEGACRISIS UNKNOWN TERRITORY - In Search of Conceptual and Strategic Breakthroughs

The nature of major crises has dramatically evolved over the past fewyears: Megcrises become the name of the game. The goal of this contribution is to capture the evolving notion of crisis, and to prepare new references to deal with the new crisis landscapes. The first section aims at building a renewed understanding of the emerging challenges we face – a combination of rogue events made of severity, speed, ignorance, hypercomplexity, inconceivability, and liquefaction-prone contexts that no longer guarantee the “back to normalcy” comforting rule. The second develops the components of a strategic response which includes: a seminal paradigm shift; a switch from management to leadership, and from “Command and Control” to decisive empowerment; and a whole new approach in education and training.Mega-crises, Critical Thinking, Strategic Approach

Over the edge of the world

Over the edge of the world Magellan utilised novel tactics to master a great ocean and overcome a sea of ignorance. Patrick Lagadec contends that we are faced with similar challenges today, and need a new cosmology to face 21st Century crise

A New Cosmology of Risks and Crises: Time for a Radical Shift in Paradigm and Practice

Crises in the 21st century differ—structurally— from those we had to deal with in the last century. Those were traditionally defined and handled as a combination of “threat, urgency and uncertainty”. Today, they are better described in terms of a destruction of vital references and a dynamic of systemic implosions. If crises were a type of severe, dynamic accident , they are becoming the essential mode of life of our hypercomplex systems. These transboundary crises mark a watershed between mindsets and tools of the past, and the new strategic landscape which we are now in. The intellectual and governance challenges are extreme. But looking backwards is not an option. It is vital to forge new routes into Terrae Incognitae. The goal of this article is to help build a) a renewed understanding of the emerging challenges we face; b) a better strategic response to these systemic dislocations which are now the name of the game

Risques et crises : Questions sur nos ancrages

The crucial challenge now in the risks and crises arena is the capacity to think and to handle unconventional issues – those that no longer fit the usual frameworks. Discontinuity and chaotic environment is the name of the game. Yet our culture and operational rules are still intrinsically based on independent and limited risks and stable contexts. The real mutations now needed – both cognitive and operational – call for an in-depth revisiting of our benchmarks. In this first publication we focus on Peter Bernstein and his “Remarkable story of risks”, and on Descartes who is still so influential – with regard to our reasoning and method.Le principal défi désormais, en matière de risques et de crises, est de pouvoir penser et traiter des problèmes sortant des cadres habituels, marqués par la discontinuité et le chaotique. Or, notre culture des risques et des crises, nos règles opérationnelles sont tout entières marquées par des hypothèses fondamentales d'indépendance et de gravité limitée des phénomènes, de stabilité générale des contextes. Pour opérer les mutations nécessaires –cognitives et opérationnelles – il nous faut remonter aux sources. Dans ce premier cahier, nous revenons, avec Bernstein, sur la “grande histoire du risque”, et avec Descartes sur les références qu'ils nous a laissées en matière de rationalité et de méthode

Meeting the Challenge of Interdependent Critical Networks under Threat : The Paris Initiative

NARisques à grande échelle;Gestion des crises internationale;Interdépendances;Infrastructures critiques;Anthrax;Initiative collective;Stratégie;Préparation des Etats-majors

Sécurité collective et nouvelles menaces. Des résistances à dépasser, des chemins à ouvrir

Emerging crises take place in a very turbulent context, with ruptures on many fronts: environment, climate change, public health, technology, social dynamics, geostrategy, violence. 9/11 is the key event in this dynamics, but not the only issue. These intertwined, inconceivable challenges, have to be met. This requires: lucidity, to understand the new frontiers of risks and vulnerability; clarification of the resistances to overcome, which often drive to paralysis when it would be necessary to mobilize the best intelligence and determination; impulse creative dynamics and launch specific initiatives to be able to develop promissing opportunities beyond rupturesNous sommes aujourd'hui à une période de ruptures en matière de risques et de sécurité collective - sur tous les fronts, qu'il s'agisse d'environnement, de climat, de santé publique, de technologie, de dynamiques sociales, de géostratégie et de violence. L'ombre du 11 septembre est présente dans tous les esprits, mais ce n'est pas là le seul enjeu. Il nous faut nous saisir de ces questions, massives et enchevêtrées, qui souvent relèvent de " l'impensable ". Cela suppose : lucidité, pour bien comprendre les franchissements de seuil à prendre en considération ; clarification des résistances, qui souvent paralysent, quand il faudrait mobiliser intelligence et détermination ; impulser des dynamiques créatrices et prendre des initiatives fortes afin de nous mettre en posture favorable pour tirer des ruptures à l'œuvre des opportunités positives

Enseignement sur la question des crises - Enjeux, Obstacles, Initiatives

The crisis issue features very little at university level. The time has come to take new initiatives to prepare future decision makers for this tough and destabilizing domain. This text is simply a preamble to reflection and action. The goal is to have it circulate – first and foremost among those who in France and abroad are striving to built, deliver and support teaching on the issue – in oder to consolidate diagnostics and proposals. It covers three aspects: the challenges of emerging crises, the obstables to be overcome, and the initiatives to be taken to develop genuine initiatves on the subject.La question des crises est encore loin de s'inscrire au nombre des grands enseignements. L'heure est venue de prendre de nouvelles initiatives pour préparer les futurs responsables à ce domaine difficile et déstabilisant. Ce texte est une simple introduction à la réflexion et l'action. Le but est de le faire circuler –en premier lieu auprès de tous ceux qui s'efforcent aujourd'hui, en France et à l'étranger, de construire, de dispenser et de soutenir des enseignements sur la question des crises – pour consolider les diagnostics et les propositions. Il couvre trois dimensions : les enjeux des crises majeures en émergence, les obstacles à dépasser, les initiatives à prendre pour développer véritablement les enseignements sur le sujet